Second Choice Dynamic in Iowa Caucuses
At the January 3rd caucuses, Iowa Democrats, like Minnesota Democrats, get a second choice.
They use the walking subcaucus method. Attendees position themselves in a corner of the room or under a sign that identifies them as supporters of a certain candidate.
“Bodies” are then counted. Every candidate who gets a number of supporters that exceeds a threshold (usually 15%) wins a number of delegates that corresponds to their support. (If Mary is preferred by 50% of the attendees, she gets 50% of the delegates to the convention.)
The interesting thing about the Iowa Democratic Caucus is that it does not ignore the wishes of those who support candidates who fail to reach the threshold. In most states, if Kucinich supports are only 14% of the attendees, they get to send no delegates to the convention (if the threshold is 15%). Their votes are “wasted.” In Iowa, however, they get a second chance to move their support to another candidate.
Even though this method is not the same as IRV, it offers some of the same benefits:
• No vote is “wasted”
• A better indication of the will of the voters is achieved
• Voters can vote theirhopes (favorite candidate) rather than their fears (someone else that has a more realistic chance)
Next time someone wonders if the ranking of candidates is too difficult for voters to understand, tell them how easy it is for our neighbors to the south!
The press and bloggers are playing up the significance of the second-choice dynamic because it may shape how the top contenders fare in the final tally.
See select articles and blogs below.
Kucinich Tells Supporters to Caucus for Obama
January 1, 2008
By Jeff Zeleny
SIOUX CITY, Iowa – Representative Dennis Kucinich urged his Iowa followers today to select Senator Barack Obama as their second choice at the caucuses on Thursday if his support is not strong enough to be viable in the 1,781 precincts across the state.
“Senator Obama and I have one thing in common: Change,” Mr. Kucinich said in a statement today.
The two spoke briefly by telephone before Mr. Obama flew here for an afternoon rally. In a statement, Mr. Obama took advantage of the opportunity to point out that he, along with Mr. Kucinich, opposed the war in Iraq. “He and I have been fighting for a number of the same priorities,” Mr. Obama said.
Four years ago, during his first presidential bid, Mr. Kucinich announced a similar second-choice partnership with John Edwards. At the time, aides to Mr. Edwards said it helped contribute to his second-place finish in the caucuses.
This year, however, Mr. Kucinich has barely waged a campaign in Iowa. He has no paid organizers or offices in the state and he was not invited to participate in The Des Moines Register’s debate in December. Still, it is not uncommon to see faded Kucinich bumper stickers on cars at rallies for Democratic presidential candidates.
We’ll see on Thursday whether they follow Mr. Kucinich’s advice.
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Second votes could sway Iowa Democratic race
By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent
Mon Dec 17,
ANKENY, Iowa (Reuters) - In Iowa's unpredictable Democratic presidential scramble, a voter's second choice can be as important as the first -- and ultimately could make the difference in a tight race.
Under the arcane rules in Iowa's January 3 contest, which opens the state-by-state race to choose candidates for the November 2008 election, Democratic contenders are required to muster support from at least 15 percent of the attendees in each precinct to be considered viable.
If a candidate cannot reach that threshold, his backers can switch to a second choice. This is a potential boost for leading contenders Barack Obama, John Edwards and Hillary Clinton, whose campaigns have worked hard to identify and court supporters of second-tier contenders.
In many precincts, supporters of candidates like New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich or Sens. Joseph Biden of Delaware and Chris Dodd of Connecticut could find themselves free agents looking for someone else to back.
The phenomenon could be another hurdle for Clinton in Iowa, as polls show Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina, and Obama, a first-term Illinois senator, gain slightly more second-choice voters.
"The question of viability and second choices is a huge wild card, particularly in a very close race," said Gordon Fischer, former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party and an Obama supporter.
"There is no question it can make a difference," he said. "And there is no question nobody really knows what will happen."
Iowa kicks off the state-by-state battle to pick nominees for the November 2008 election and most candidates put enormous effort into making a strong showing in the Midwestern state.
The rules of the Republican contest in Iowa, which takes place on the same day, do not allow for second-choice votes.
DEMOCRATIC KINGMAKERS
The second-choice rules could make kingmakers of Democratic voters like Gary and Carol Keast, both 71, a retired couple from the state capital Des Moines who support Biden because they like his foreign policy experience.
But they plan to go their separate ways if Biden's support does not reach 15 percent in their precinct. He will go with Obama. She is a Clinton fan.
"I think she has the best chance to win (the presidency), and I want a Democrat to win," Carol Keast said of Clinton, a New York senator and former first lady.
Gary Keast said he liked Obama's early opposition to the Iraq war when he was an Illinois state senator. "The fact that he wasn't part of the war is a big plus," he said.
Polls show that among supporters of Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich -- the candidates most likely to fail to meet the threshold in a given precinct -- Edwards was the second choice of 29 percent, Obama 24 percent and Clinton 15 percent in a recent Rasmussen poll.
"We've been through the second-choice stuff before and we feel Senator Edwards is well placed to be successful there," said Jennifer O'Malley Dixon, Iowa state director for Edwards, who was second in Iowa when he sought the nomination in 2004.
Clinton's problem with second-choice voters could be she is too well-known and perceptions of her are set, Fischer said.
"What more information can anyone possibly want or need about her? If you aren't already for her, you've made a conscious decision not to be for her," he said.
But Clinton's experience and her strong support among women could give her a boost among second-choice voters, who often give the race a late reevaluation, Clinton aides say.
Predicting the impact of the second-place voting is mostly guesswork. It is hard to track what happens in each of the more than 1,700 precincts around the state, analysts say.
"There is not a lot of good data on people making second choices and how it has worked. It's all anecdotal," said David Redlawsk, a political scientist at the University of Iowa and director of the Iowa poll.
(To read more about the U.S. political campaign, visit Reuters "Tales from the Trail: 2008" online at http://blogs.reuters.com/trail08/)
(Editing by David Storey)
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Additional links:
http://www.mddems.com/presidentresults.php
http://1percentmoreconscious.blogspot.com/2007/12/iowa-caucus-second-choice-wrinkle.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/11/28/opinion/pollpositions/main3548914.shtml
http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?articleId=281474977172130
